河南农业大学学报2025，Vol.59Issue(1)：179-188,10.DOI:10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20240822.001
气候变化对黄淮海地区粮食单产影响的HP滤波法分析
The impact analysis of climate change on grain yield per unit area of the Huang-Huai-Hai Region by HP filter method
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to explore the influence of climate change factors on the fluctua-tion of long-term series of grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region.[Method]Based on the yield per unit area data of wheat and corn in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region from 1949 to 2021,the yield was sepa-rated by HP filtering method,and the long-period component trend yield affected by technological prog-ress and economic development and the short-period component climate yield caused by climate change were obtained.[Result]Compared with the actual yield per unit area data,the trend yield per unit area obtained by HP filtering has similar characteristics of annual variation with the actual yield of crops,and the trend yield per unit area changes more smoothly,and the fluctuation range is smaller than the actual yield per unit area.The annual fluctuation of climate yield per unit area is the largest,and its change directly affects the actual yield per unit area of the year;The influence of climate yield on actual yield can be divided into positive and negative aspects;Different crops are affected by climate yield per unit area to different degrees in the same year.[Conclusion]Although climate change has a great impact on agricul-tural production,in the long run,the yield per unit area of wheat and corn is mainly affected by scientific and technological development factors such as planting technology,crop variety improvement and digital intelligence technology.关键词
黄淮海地区/气候变化/趋势单产/气候单产/HP滤波法Key words
the Huang-Huai-Hai Region/climate change/trend yield per unit area/climate yield per unit area/HP filtering method分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
荣越,黄高彦,马恒运..气候变化对黄淮海地区粮食单产影响的HP滤波法分析[J].河南农业大学学报,2025,59(1):179-188,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72003057) （72003057）
河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2023GGJS033) （2023GGJS033）
河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022CJJ147) （2022CJJ147）
