人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：32-39,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.004
基于MLR与ARDL的城市湖泊溶解氧浓度模拟
Simulation of Dissolved Oxygen Concentration in an Urban Lake Based on MLR and ARDL
摘要
Abstract
Research on the simulation of dissolved oxygen(DO)in urban lakes is of significance in promoting the development of water quality simulation research for urban lakes.A lake,which is near the central area of Yangzhou City was adopted as the study area.Based on the observed data of DO,blue-green algae concentration,water temperature(WT),electric conductivity(EC),and pH in 2020,a multiple linear regression(MLR)model and an autoregressive distribution lag(ARDL)model were developed.Simulations for the observed sequence values of DO in 2020(from January 1,2020 to December 31,2020)and four quarters of 2020 were carried out.The results indicate that the simulation results of the MLR model exhibit relatively low accuracy,while those of the ARDL model show relatively high accuracy;the coefficient of determination(R2)of the DO simulation results for different periods is 0.75～0.99.Both MLR and ARDL models have applicability for simulating DO in the lake.Specifically,the ARDL model has better applicability for DO sequence simulation with time period changes than MLR.关键词
城市湖泊/溶解氧浓度/多元线性回归模型/自回归分布滞后模型Key words
urban lake/dissolved oxygen concentration/multiple linear regression model/autoregressive distributed lag model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵洪铖,杨菲,周鹏,郭家诚,黄金柏..基于MLR与ARDL的城市湖泊溶解氧浓度模拟[J].人民珠江,2025,46(1):32-39,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41271046) （41271046）
中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(IWHR-SKL-KF202309) （IWHR-SKL-KF202309）
