铁道运输与经济2025，Vol.47Issue(1)：40-52,13.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.2025.01.04
碳交易机制下考虑需求不确定的多式联运路径优化
Route Optimization of Multimodal Transport Considering Demand Uncertainty under Carbon Trading Mechanism
摘要
Abstract
To promote the cost reduction and carbon mitigation and clarify the influence of the mechanism and uncertain demand on the choice of multimodal transport routes,this study constructed an uncertain chance-constrained programming model,which was transformed into a deterministic model based on the uncertainty theory and solved by a genetic algorithm incorporating the immigration mechanism,for the route optimization of multimodal transport considering freight uncertainty under carbon trading mechanism.Comprehensive influences of carbon quotas,allocation methods,carbon trading prices and uncertain demand on multimodal transport schemes,cost structure and carbon emission of freight enterprises were analyzed through numerical examples.Results show that the carbon trading mechanism effectively guides freight enterprises to adopt low-carbon options,reducing emissions by 18.4%.In scenarios featuring low-cost balanced quotas,including free allocation and mixed allocations of 80%and 90%,as well as high quota scenarios,enterprises can simultaneously reduce emissions and costs,achieving economic and environmental benefits.Under uncertain freight volumes,enterprises prefer stable and low-carbon options like rail or rail-water intermodal,and will increase investments to manage risks.关键词
多式联运/路径优化/不确定需求/不确定机会约束规划/碳交易机制Key words
Multimodal Transport/Route Optimization/Uncertain Demand/Uncertain Chance-Constrained Programming/Carbon Trading Mechanism分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
段力伟,高慧艳..碳交易机制下考虑需求不确定的多式联运路径优化[J].铁道运输与经济,2025,47(1):40-52,13.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18XJCZH001) （18XJCZH001）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(61803057) （61803057）
