中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(1)：250-263,14.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.01.22
基于四位协同视角的粮食系统发展水平测度与动态演进
Measurement and dynamic evolution of the development level of food system based on four-part collaborative perspective
摘要
Abstract
To ensure the stable supply,efficient utilization and long-term sustainable development of the food system in China,one food system framework is constructed from four-dimensional synergistic perspective,which encompasses structural rationalization,technological sophistication,policy service orientation,and governance ecologicalization.Sensitive factor indicators are identified through the PVAR model,and the development level of the food system is measured by using the ordered polygon area method.The dynamic evolution characteristics are analyzed using Markov chain analysis.The results show that the selected twelve development evaluation indicators for the grain system include:grain production structure,the comprehensive utilization rate of grain,the net import and export rate of grain,labor-saving technology,the degree of technological progress,the number of grain-related invention patents,government support intensity,insurance penetration rate,government investment scale,environmental regulation,carbon emission rate and the proportion of disaster-affected area12;From 2005 to 2021,the grain system has continued to grow with the differences between subsystems gradually widening,showing a clear"heterogeneity"characteristic;China's grain system displays a"radiating"trend,with the Northeast and North China taking the lead in development,driving the overall improvement of the national grain system level,which forms a"dual-core"development pattern of the grain system centered on the Northeast and North China;In addition,the Markov chain results indicate that the current development state of the grain system is relatively stable with a clustering effect;The probability of maintaining the current development level is gradually decreasing,while the probability of evolving to a higher development level is increasing,which suggests the possibility of breakthrough development.It is recommended to optimize the integration of resources and factors,expand the spillover effect of advantageous regions,establish a multi-level grain system security and operation mechanism,and promote the sustainable development of the grain system.关键词
粮食系统/四位协同/结构合理化/技术高度化/政策服务化/治理生态化Key words
grain system/four-way synergy/structural rationalization/technological sophistication/policy service-oriented/governance ecologicalization分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
袁世一,李干琼,杨淼..基于四位协同视角的粮食系统发展水平测度与动态演进[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(1):250-263,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(62103418) （62103418）
中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务费(JBYW-AII-2024-30) （JBYW-AII-2024-30）
