交通运输研究2024，Vol.10Issue(6)：57-67,11.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2024.06.005
面向2060年的我国交通运输绿色转型战略与路径
Strategy and Path of Green Transformation for China's Transportation Towards 2060
摘要
Abstract
To accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation in China and assist in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on schedule and building a beautiful China,a transportation carbon emission prediction model was constructed,and benchmark scenarios,carbon peak-ing and carbon neutrality policy scenarios,and deep emission reduction scenarios towards 2035 and 2060 were set.The changing trends of transportation carbon emissions under different scenarios were analyzed,and strategic paths for the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation were proposed.The research results show that:① with the rapid development of economy and society and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization,the total carbon emissions from transportation in China will con-tinue to grow during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.It is necessary to establish a new mechanism for comprehensive transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emis-sions,and improve the working mechanism for dual control of carbon emissions from transportation.②Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy scenarios,the application of new energy has the most prominent emission reduction effect.It is necessary to optimize the energy structure of trans-portation vehicles with the vision of zero emissions,promote the integrated development of transporta-tion and energy,and build zero-carbon transportation infrastructure.③Under the deep emission reduc-tion scenarios,the contribution of transportation structure adjustment to emission reduction around 2030 accounts for about 22%.It is necessary to accelerate the construction of a green and efficient freight system and improve the green travel system.④It is necessary to build a climate-adaptive infra-structure system,create a resilient transportation facility network,and ensure the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation.关键词
新时代/绿色交通/碳达峰/情景分析/碳排放Key words
new era/green transportation/peaking carbon emissions/scenario analysis/carbon emissions分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
凤振华,王雪成,欧阳斌,张海颖,曹子龙..面向2060年的我国交通运输绿色转型战略与路径[J].交通运输研究,2024,10(6):57-67,11.基金项目
交通运输战略规划政策项目(2024-19-3) （2024-19-3）
交通运输部工作经费项目(20241Z01011) （20241Z01011）
能源基金会项目(G-2409-35866) （G-2409-35866）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20240121 （）
20240122 （）
20240128) （）
