交通运输研究2024，Vol.10Issue(6)：78-86,9.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2024.06.007
"十五五"时期我国民航发展趋势分析与需求预测方法建议
Analysis of Development Trend and Suggestions on Demand Forecasting Methods of Civil Aviation in China During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
葛金梅 1汪航 1程欢 1姚津津1
作者信息
- 1. 中国民航科学技术研究院,北京 100028
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a key stage for civil aviation to promote high-quality develop-ment and write a new chapter in the sector of a country with a strong transportation network.Accurately grasping the development trend of the industry and scientifically forecasting demand is an important sup-port for the preparation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for civil aviation.Based on the differences of vari-ous civil aviation markets(passenger and freight markets,domestic and international markets),the im-portance of combining situation analysis and demand forecasting was emphasized,and suggestions on the method of civil aviation demand forecasting were put forward on this basis.Firstly,the methods of civil aviation demand forecasting were summarized,and the demand forecasting methods of industry planning in the past five years were reviewed.It is pointed out that the demand forecast during the 15th Five-Year Plan period answer two questions:"how big is the scale?"and"where is the increment?".Then,the internal and external environment of civil aviation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period was analyzed,the opportunities and challenges faced by the development of civil aviation were sum-marized.Finally,the general idea of the 15th Five-Year Plan civil aviation demand forecast was pro-posed.Combined with the trend of domestic passenger popularization,the complexity and variability of the international situation,the trend of air cargo specialization,new features of structure and other demand development trends,the"top-down"and"bottom-up"forecasting method framework were put forward for passenger and freight demand forecast respectively,in order to provide theoretical refer-ence and methodological suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan civil aviation demand forecast.关键词
民航发展趋势/民航需求预测方法/民航发展规划/自上而下/自下而上Key words
civil aviation development trend/civil aviation demand forecasting methods/civil avi-ation development planning/top-down method/bottom-up method分类
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葛金梅,汪航,程欢,姚津津.."十五五"时期我国民航发展趋势分析与需求预测方法建议[J].交通运输研究,2024,10(6):78-86,9.
