人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(2)：42-50,73,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.02.007
南水北调西线工程水源区气象条件分析
Analysis of Meteorological Conditions at the Water Source Area of the South-to-North Water Diversion West Route Project
摘要
Abstract
The South-to-North Water Diversion Project's Western Route is a crucial measure to alleviate water shortages in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River.However,global climate change has affected the water supply and distribution in the source areas cur-rently,there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the meteorological characteristics of these areas,and further clarification is needed on the spatial and temporal differences and sensitivities of internal meteorological changes.Therefore,this study analyzed the trends,abrupt changes,and correlations of precipitation and temperature in the source areas is based on daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2020.The results show that the meteorological conditions in the source areas respond sensitively to global climate change.Precipitation has significantly increased at a rate of 16.14 mm/decade,nearly three times the national average.The temperature has risen at a rate of 0.26℃/decade,con-sistent with the national average rate.In terms of spatial and temporal distribution,the average annual precipitation in the source areas de-creased from southeast to northwest.The annual variability coefficient of precipitation is 0.91,with 72%of the precipitation concentrated be-tween June and September.The average annual temperature is 3.62℃,increasing from north to south,with temperatures ranging from-16.7℃to 16.4℃throughout the year.Moreover,there are differences in climate sensitivity within the source areas.The sensitive areas for precipitation changes are near Lianghekou and Shuangjiangkou,while Qingshui River,Shiqu,and Seda are sensitive sites for temperature changes.There is a strong correlation between these sensitive sites,indicating that their meteorological conditions might change abruptly simultaneously,ne-cessitating the avoidance of risk accumulation in water distribution strategies.关键词
变化趋势/时空分布特征/变化敏感区/相关性分析/南水北调西线工程Key words
trend changes/spatiotemporal distribution characteristics/sensitivity to change zones/correlation analysis/South-to-North Wa-ter Diversion Project's western route分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王聪,陈旻,张陵蕾,李嘉,安瑞冬,李永..南水北调西线工程水源区气象条件分析[J].人民黄河,2025,47(2):42-50,73,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202403,2022YFC3202402) （2022YFC3202403,2022YFC3202402）
四川省自然科学基金资助项目(2023NSFSC0285) （2023NSFSC0285）
