铁道标准设计2025，Vol.69Issue(2)：51-59,118,10.DOI:10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.202306230004
基于博弈论组合赋权—模糊综合评价法的铁路EPC项目进度影响因素研究
Research on the Influencing Factors of Intercity Railway EPC Project Schedule Based on Game Theory Combination Weighting
摘要
Abstract
In order to identify the key factors affecting the progress of railway EPC(Engineering,Procurement and Construction)projects and determine optimal weight values,this study combines the characteristics of a railway EPC project in Handan,China,encompassing design,procurement and construction phases.Through a combination of literature review,questionnaire surveys and expert revisions,the factors influencing the progress of railway EPC projects are proposed,and a corresponding indicator system is established.Utilizing the qualitative analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and quantitative entropy weight method,optimal weights are obtained through a game theory approach.Additionally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to analyze and verify the factors affecting the progress of railway EPC projects.The research findings indicate that the key influencing factors,consisting of 20 observation points across six dimensions—technology,management,organizational coordination,environment,policies,and others—can effectively and accurately reflect project progress.The combination weighting method rationalizes and optimizes qualitative and quantitative weights.Specifically,the weights for the design and construction phases of the railway EPC project are 3.382 1 and 3.375 9 respectively,demonstrating a more pronounced impact on project progress.The overall construction technical difficulty significantly affects project progress across all three phases,with the design phase having the highest weight of 0.629 8,followed by the construction phase at 0.395 9,and the procurement phase with the lowest weight of 0.103 9.Quality and timely supply of equipment and materials have a significant impact during the procurement phase with a weight of 0.492 5,surpassing other factors.Overall,the game theory-derived weightings for factors affecting railway EPC project progress are reasonably balanced.It is recommended that during project progress management,particular emphasis should be placed on the design and construction phases,especially considering the complexities of the entire construction process and the potential impact of design changes and additional construction content on project progress.关键词
铁路/EPC项目/影响因素/博弈论/模糊综合评价/权重Key words
railway/EPC project/influencing factors/game theory/fuzzy comprehensive evaluation/weighting分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
庞银萍,李帅,刘浩,戎密仁..基于博弈论组合赋权—模糊综合评价法的铁路EPC项目进度影响因素研究[J].铁道标准设计,2025,69(2):51-59,118,10.基金项目
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51908344) （51908344）
河北省建设科技研究指导性计划项目(2022-2090) （2022-2090）
河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(QN2023220) （QN2023220）
