草业学报2025，Vol.34Issue(2)：27-40,14.DOI:10.11686/cyxb2024138
沙芦草的分布及潜在适生区预测
Prediction of potentially suitable areas for Agropyron mongolicum to enhance its distribution
摘要
Abstract
Agropyron mongolicum,a plant under second-level key protection in China,posess strong drought resistance and adaptability.Hence,this species has significant value for the restoration of desert grassland vegetation and as a genetic resource for wheat(Triticum aestivum)breeding.Because A.mongolicum is sensitive to changes in environmental factors,it is important to identify its optimal habitat conditions to forecast its potential distribution under various climate scenarios;such information will provide crucial guidance for its conservation.In this study,a maximum entropy model was constructed using 119 accurate distribution records and data for 39 environmental variables.The model,which was implemented in ArcGIS software,was used to predict the current and future suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum under two different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8).The results show that precipitation of wettest month,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,and soil pH are the primary natural factors influencing the distribution of A.mongolicum.At present,suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum are predominantly in northern China's arid zones,with large populations distributed along the borders of Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,and Ningxia.Under both projected climate scenarios,the suitable habitat for A.mongolicum is expected to shift westward to varying extents.Under future climate change scenarios,the overall distribution pattern of A.mongolicum's potential growth areas will resemble the current one,but there will be substantial changes in suitability for A.mongolicum growth.Highly suitable areas for A.mongolicum are projected to migrate northward under these future climate scenarios,primarily to central Inner Mongolia.Consequently,conservation efforts for A.mongolicum should concentrate on areas which currently have dense communities and pay attention to potential future habitats in central Inner Mongolia.关键词
沙芦草/最大熵模型/ArcGIS软件Key words
Agropyron mongolicum/maximum entropy model/ArcGIS software引用本文复制引用
田丛嫣,王文强,杨博,黄文广,梁咏亮,杨君珑,李小伟..沙芦草的分布及潜在适生区预测[J].草业学报,2025,34(2):27-40,14.基金项目
宁夏高等学校一流学科建设(草学学科)项目(NXYLXK2017A01),宁夏草原监测项目(2023),贺兰山植被群落生物量与草食兽数量的关系研究项目(2022)和贺兰山东麓珍稀濒危植物斑子麻黄保护生物学研究项目(2022)资助. （草学学科）
