沙芦草的分布及潜在适生区预测OA北大核心

Agropyron mongolicum,a plant under second-level key protection in China,posess strong drought resistance and adaptability.Hence,this species has significant value for the restoration of desert grassland vegetation and as a genetic resource for wheat(Triticum aestivum)breeding.Because A.mongolicum is sensitive to changes in environmental factors,it is important to identify its optimal habitat conditions to forecast its potential distribution under various climate scenarios;such information will provide crucial guidance for its conservation.In this study,a maximum entropy model was constructed using 119 accurate distribution records and data for 39 environmental variables.The model,which was implemented in ArcGIS software,was used to predict the current and future suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum under two different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8).The results show that precipitation of wettest month,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,and soil pH are the primary natural factors influencing the distribution of A.mongolicum.At present,suitable growth areas for A.mongolicum are predominantly in northern China's arid zones,with large populations distributed along the borders of Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,and Ningxia.Under both projected climate scenarios,the suitable habitat for A.mongolicum is expected to shift westward to varying extents.Under future climate change scenarios,the overall distribution pattern of A.mongolicum's potential growth areas will resemble the current one,but there will be substantial changes in suitability for A.mongolicum growth.Highly suitable areas for A.mongolicum are projected to migrate northward under these future climate scenarios,primarily to central Inner Mongolia.Consequently,conservation efforts for A.mongolicum should concentrate on areas which currently have dense communities and pay attention to potential future habitats in central Inner Mongolia.