摘要
Abstract
In 2025,supply and demand fundamentals,macroeconomics,and geopolitics will interact to influence the volatile trend of oil prices.Uncertainty in the U.S.economy,China's economic recovery,and low economic growth in Europe are the main macroeconomic factors.OPEC's idle capacity seeking to increase production,strong growth in output from non-OPEC oil-producing countries,China's slowing oil demand,and global oil oversupply are the main supply and demand fundamentals.U.S.sanctions,the Ukraine issue,and the Middle East conflict,are the main geopolitical factors.In the first half of 2025,OPEC delayed production cuts,uncertainties of the Ukraine issue,and other factors may support the Brent oil price in the oscillation above $70 per barrel.The development of the US-China trade conflict,the oversupply in the oil market,and the change of the geopolitical situation will dominate the trend of the international oil price in the second half of the year.The Brent price may fall below the bottom of the past two years'range at $70 per barrel,potentially bottoming out near $60 per barrel.The oil market will be influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors,with bearish fundamentals playing a more significant role.It is expected that Brent prices would shift lower in 2025,with a projected range of $65 to $85 per barrel and a bottom support level of $60 per barrel.The price midpoint is likely to be higher in the first half of the year compared to the second half.关键词
全球原油市场/原油价格/宏观经济/供应与需求/地缘政治/中美贸易战/欧佩克/美国页岩油Key words
global crude oil market/crude oil prices/macroeconomics/supply&demand/geopolitics/the US-China trade conflict/OPEC/US shale oil分类
管理科学
