河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）2025，Vol.27Issue(1)：117-131,15.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1671-4970.2025.01.011
资本市场一体化视角下经济政策不确定性的地区差异与资本流动
Regional Differences in Economic Policy Uncertainty and Capital Flow:From the Perspective of Capital Market Integration
摘要
Abstract
The current fiscal decentralization system has led to significant differences in regional economic policy uncertainty(economic policy uncertainty,EPU).Due to the limitation of EPU indices being available only at the national level,researchers are unable to examine the impact of regional EPU on domestic capital flows.To address this,a measurement method for regional EPU based on big data and artificial intelligence is proposed.This method empirically investigates the effect and mechanisms of regional EPU disparities on cross-regional capital flows,offering a new explanation for the"Lucas Paradox",a capital flow anomaly.The study reveals that greater regional EPU disparities in China lead to increased cross-regional capital flows.Analyzing the direction of capital flows shows that the relationship between regional EPU disparities and capital flows is mainly reflected in movements from less developed regions to developed regions.Capital tends to flow from regions with higher EPU to those with lower EPU:enterprises in low-EPU regions are less inclined to actively transfer capital outward,while enterprises in high-EPU regions are more likely to transfer capital outward to mitigate risks.Further analysis indicates an asymmetrical impact of financial development levels and credit levels on the capital-exporting and capital-receiving regions.For capital-exporting regions,local financial development and credit levels weaken the positive relationship between regional EPU disparities and the scale of cross-regional mergers and acquisitions.In contrast,the effect is reversed for capital-receiving regions.Finally,the article offers policy recommendations for the government and enterprises,including reasonably planning pilot areas for various economic policies,maintaining consistency in economic policies,vigorously promoting the development of the financial industry,emphasizing the role of social trust,and improving decision-making mechanisms for cross-regional mergers and acquisitions.关键词
资本市场一体化/经济政策不确定性/资本流动/"卢卡斯悖论"/异地并购/百度指数/深度学习算法Key words
capital market integration/uncertainty of economic policies/capital flow/Lucas Paradox/inter-regional M&As/Baidu Index/deep learning algorithm引用本文复制引用
周耿,刘畅,范从来..资本市场一体化视角下经济政策不确定性的地区差异与资本流动[J].河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）,2025,27(1):117-131,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173063,72373066) （72173063,72373066）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD059) （23&ZD059）
