昆明医科大学学报2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：110-117,8.DOI:10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20250216
云南省孕产妇死亡率预测模型的构建与评估
Construction and Evaluation of Maternal Mortality Prediction Model in Yunnan Province
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct and evaluate the prediction model of maternal mortality in Yunnan Province,and predict the maternal mortality rate in Yunnan Province from 2024 to 2030.Methods Based on the maternal mortality rates in Yunnan Province from 1994 to 2023,a grey prediction model and a autoregressive integrated moving average model were constructed,The models were compared using mean absolute error,mean square error and root mean square error to assess their fitting performance,and the optimal model was used to predict the maternal mortality rate in Yunnan Province from 2024 to 2030.Resuls The maternal mortality rate in Yunnan Province showed a continuous decline from 1994 to 2023(χ2=50 170.0,P<0.05).The mean absolute error,mean-square error and root mean-square error for the grey prediction model were 2.424,12.389,3.519,respectively,while for the differential autoregressive moving average model,they were 3.966,27.651,5.258,respectively.The prediction effect of the grey prediction model is superior to that of the autoregressive integrated moving average model,with a posterior difference ratio C=0.079 and a low probability error P=1,indicating a prediction accuracy of level 1.Using the grey prediction model,the maternal mortality rates for Yunnan Province from 2024 to 2030 are 10.05/100 000,9.16/100 000,8.34/100 000,7.59/100 000,691/100 000,6.30/100 000 and 5.73/100 000,respectively.Conclusion The grey prediction model has a good prediction effect on maternal mortality in Yunnan Province.It is predicted that the maternal mortality rate in Yunnan Province in 2030 can meet the control targets outlined in the"Healthy China 2030 Plan",the"Outline of Chinese Women's Development(2021-2030)"and the"Yunnan Women's Development Plan(2021-2030)".关键词
孕产妇死亡率/灰色预测模型/差分自回归移动平均模型/预测Key words
Maternal mortality/Grey prediction model/Autoregressive integrated moving average model/Prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
赵珊,高赛,李堂春,赵钟鸣,吴亚婷,郑敏..云南省孕产妇死亡率预测模型的构建与评估[J].昆明医科大学学报,2025,46(2):110-117,8.基金项目
云南省"兴滇英才支持计划"名医专项支持项目[(XDYC)-MY-2022-0073] （XDYC）
昆明医科大学2024年研究生教育创新基金(2024S181) （2024S181）
