农业环境科学学报2025，Vol.44Issue(1)：247-259,13.DOI:10.11654/jaes.2024-0161
黑龙江省水稻碳汇功能测算及碳中和趋势预测
Estimation of carbon sink function and prediction of the carbon neutral trend for rice in Heilongjiang Province
摘要
Abstract
In this study,the carbon sink capacity and variation of rice in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed,and the time node and evolution trend of rice carbon neutrality was predicted.This was done in order to provide quantitative reference for measuring the carbon neutrality of rice in Heilongjiang Province.According to the relevant data of rice production in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021,the carbon sink of rice(calculated as CO2)was measured by using the net carbon sink method.Additionally,the ARIMA-BP combination model based on residual optimization was constructed to predict the carbon neutrality trend of rice in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that:total carbon emissions from rice fields in Heilongjiang Province showed a"rising-declining"trend,with a peak plateau in 2013-2017,and emissions per unit area showed a fluctuating downward trend,with an average annual decline of 0.57%.CH4 emission from soil and straw burning and N2O emission from soil are the main sources of carbon emissions.Overall,the carbon emissions of CH4,irrigation,and compound fertilizers showed an upward trend.The carbon sequestration of rice soil in Heilongjiang Province showed an increasing trend in both total soil carbon and per unit area soil carbon.Rice soils in Heilongjiang Province have always been in a carbon source state,but their capacity as a carbon source is gradually on the decline;In terms of unit area,rice in Heilongjiang Province is expected to reach carbon neutrality by 2054,and the carbon sink function of rice soils in this region will gradually strengthen thereafter.Research shows that rice in Heilongjiang province has been in the carbon peak period,but it is currently in the carbon source state and is expected to achieve its carbon neutrality goal ahead of schedule.关键词
黑龙江省/水稻/碳汇/碳中和/组合预测Key words
Heilongjiang Province/rice/carbon sink/carbon neutral/combined forecasting分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
孟军,杨玉蓉..黑龙江省水稻碳汇功能测算及碳中和趋势预测[J].农业环境科学学报,2025,44(1):247-259,13.基金项目
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目"黑龙江省供给侧粮食生产结构优化分析"(16JYB17) Philosophy and Social Science Research Planning Project in Heilongjiang Province"Optimization Analysis of Supply-Side Grain Production Structure in Heilongjiang Province"(16JYB17) （16JYB17）
