全球能源互联网2025，Vol.8Issue(1)：13-23,11.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2025.01.003
基于树状高斯过程的综合能源系统低碳经济规划全局敏感性分析
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Low-carbon Economic Planning for Integrated Energy System Based on Treed Gaussian Process
摘要
Abstract
The low-carbon economic planning of the integrated energy system(IES)is influenced by multiple uncertain factors,and how to effectively identify key uncertain influencing factors is crucial for system optimization.A global sensitivity analysis method for the impact factors of low-carbon economic planning of IES is proposed.Firstly,an IES system topology structure including multiple energy flow coupling such as electricity,heating,and cooling is constructed.Secondly,the IES mixed integer linear programming models with the optimization objectives of minimizing the equivalent annual cost and carbon emissions of the system are established.Then,based on the characteristics of system equipment and market environment,26 uncertain factors are screened,and their probability characterization and stratified sampling are carried out to obtain low-carbon economic planning results corresponding to different samples.Finally,the treed Gaussian process(TGP)method is used to conduct a global sensitivity analysis on uncertain factors affecting the low-carbon economic planning of the IES.The proposed method is verified through examples to efficiently and accurately identify the key uncertain factors affecting the planning of the IES.关键词
综合能源系统/低碳经济规划/全局敏感性分析/多重不确定性Key words
integrated energy system/low-carbon economic planning/global sensitivity analysis/multiple uncertainties分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
张吉强,胡丹妮,孙勇,霍玉佼,王悦,朱丽..基于树状高斯过程的综合能源系统低碳经济规划全局敏感性分析[J].全球能源互联网,2025,8(1):13-23,11.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金资助项目(20232BAB214072) （20232BAB214072）
江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ2200359) （GJJ2200359）
国家自然科学基金项目(52308125).Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation(20232BAB214072) （52308125）
Science and Technology Project of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education(GJJ2200359) （GJJ2200359）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52308125). （52308125）
