气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：1038-1046,9.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0053
地区线性矩法在江苏省短历时极值降水频率分析中的应用
Application of regional linear moment method in the analysis of the frequency of short-duration extreme precipitation in Jiangsu Province
摘要
Abstract
In this study,Jiangsu Province was used as the research area.The regional linear matrix method was used for the division of consistent areas,the selection of optimal distribution,and the calculation of extreme rainfall frequency estimates.Results show that seven consistent areas are divided in the study area.On this basis,optimal distribution was selected through monte-carlo simulation and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)comprehensive judgment.The 12-hour time interval under optimal distribution is GLO,GNO,PE3,GEV,GLO,PE3,and GNO.Finally,the calculation of extreme rainfall frequency estimates for each station under a single time interval(1,3,6,12 h)and different reoccurrences was carried out.Under the same precipitation period,the frequency estimates increase with the increase of the return period.The spatial distribution of frequency estimates under the same return period varies significantly,with large value areas consistent with actual observations.关键词
地区线性矩/短历时极值降水/频率分析/频率估计值Key words
regional L-moments/short-duration extreme precipitation/frequency analysis/frequency estimation value分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李敏,王啸华,邵月红,王坤..地区线性矩法在江苏省短历时极值降水频率分析中的应用[J].气象科学,2024,44(6):1038-1046,9.基金项目
江苏省水利科技资助项目(2022042) （2022042）
北极阁开放研究资助基金项目(BJG202211) （BJG202211）
