气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：1092-1101,10.DOI:10.12306/2023jms.0031
CMIP6模式对中南半岛极端降水未来变化的预估
Projected changes in precipitation extremes over the Indochina Peninsula by CMIP6 model
摘要
Abstract
This paper evaluated the simulation ability of 18 CMIP6 models on extreme precipitation in Indochina Peninsula,and predictd the change trend of extreme precipitation under three shared socioeconomic pathways in the mid-21st century(2030-2059)and late(2070-2099).The relative root mean square error was used to evaluate the simulation performance of the mode for extreme precipitation,and then the extreme precipitation index with better simulation effect was used for future prediction.Results show that most of the Indochina Peninsula will increase Rx1day,R10mm,CDD and PRCPTOT under the three SSP pathways.In addition to CDD,the other three extreme precipitation indices in the Indochina Peninsula changed more at the end of the 21st century than in the middle of the 21st century and had obvious situational dependencies and regional differences.CDD grew smaller in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century under the SSP126 pathway,but increased more in the mid-21st century under the SSP245 and SSP585 pathways.关键词
极端降水/CMIP6/中南半岛Key words
extreme precipitation/CMIP6/Indochina Peninsula分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
熊娜,李毅,哈瑶,葛非,臧增亮..CMIP6模式对中南半岛极端降水未来变化的预估[J].气象科学,2024,44(6):1092-1101,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41975090) （41975090）
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2022JJ20043) （2022JJ20043）
湖南省科技创新计划资助项目(2022RC1239) （2022RC1239）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41975167) （41975167）
国防科技大学自主创新科学基金资助项目(22-ZZCX-081) （22-ZZCX-081）
