气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(6)：1140-1153,14.DOI:10.12306/2024jms.0020
基于极端梯度提升算法的重庆市暴雨灾害风险评估
Risk assessment of rainstorm disaster in Chongqing based on eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm
摘要
Abstract
Rainstorm disaster is one of the frequent natural disasters in China.Chongqing has suffered heavy losses due to its unique geographical location and climate.Risk assessment and zoning of rainstorm disaster can effectively prevent and control it.This paper uses the data of rainstorm process intensity influencing factors,disaster-inducing environmental influencing factors and exposure degree of disaster-affected bodies,combines the index weights obtained by expert scoring to obtain the disaster-causing risk and disaster-affected risk index of disaster-affected bodies,so as to construct the sample set.Random Forest(RF),Adaptive Boosting(AdaBoost),eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),Gradient Boosting Regression(GBR),Support Vector Regression(SVR)and Linear Regression(LR)are used to predict respectively.Finally,the XGBoost algorithm with the lowest mean relative error(MRE)1.950％,root mean square error(RMSE)0.028,and the highest correlation(R-squared,R2)0.896 becomes the optimal algorithm(taking the prediction results of rainstorm disaster risk as an example).In the risk assessment of single rainstorm disaster,the XGBoost algorithm is still the optimal algorithm in the absence of continuous days data of rainstorm process.The MRE and RMSE of the prediction results are 2.066％and 0.030,and the R2 is 0.885.The disaster risk areas of each grade divided by XGBoost algorithm in the evaluation zoning are basically consistent with the actual disaster areas,indicating that the XGBoost algorithm can still be evaluated efficiently and accurately in the absence of some data.关键词
暴雨灾害风险评估/致灾危险性指数/受灾风险性指数/极端梯度提升算法Key words
rainstorm disaster risk assessment/disaster risk index/disaster risk index/eXtreme Gradient Boosting algorithm分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
谢涛,余亮,周浩,秦文思..基于极端梯度提升算法的重庆市暴雨灾害风险评估[J].气象科学,2024,44(6):1140-1153,14.基金项目
基于机器学习方法的重庆暴雨灾害风险评估技术研究(YWJSGG-202413) （YWJSGG-202413）
高分专项航空观测系统科研项目外协子课题 （）
