铁道运输与经济2025，Vol.47Issue(2)：89-99,11.DOI:10.16668/j.cnki.issn.1003-1421.2025.02.10
我国民航业碳排放脱钩状态分析及预测研究
Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission Decoupling State in China's Civil Aviation Industry
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of China's civil aviation Industry,the pressure to reduce carbon emissions continues to increase.To explore the decoupling relationship between the development of the civil aviation industry and carbon emissions,historical carbon emissions were calculated based on the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method.The decoupling state and driving factors of carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry were analyzed by using the TAPIO decoupling model and LMDI method.Finally,the trend and decoupling process of carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry were evaluated and predicted.The results indicate that the total carbon emissions in the civil aviation industry have continued to rise and maintained a high growth rate from 2000 to 2019.The economic level effect during the research period is the primary driving force for promoting industry expansion,while the transportation intensity effect is the primary factor driving carbon emission decoupling.Under the"extensive scenario",the civil aviation industry will not have a peak in carbon emissions.The other five scenarios can all achieve a peak in carbon emissions before 2035,but only the"green scenario"is expected to achieve the carbon peak target as scheduled.The"green scenario"has the best decoupling situation during the prediction period,while the"extensive scenario"has the worst decoupling situation and cannot achieve a strong decoupling state.The other three scenarios can optimize the decoupling trend to a certain extent.关键词
民航业/碳排放/脱钩状态/驱动因素/碳达峰Key words
Civil Aviation Industry/Carbon Emission/Decoupling State/Driving Factor/Carbon Peak分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
杨省贵,赵梓含,谭颖..我国民航业碳排放脱钩状态分析及预测研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2025,47(2):89-99,11.基金项目
中国民用航空局安全能力项目(MHAQ2024011) （MHAQ2024011）
中国民用航空局教育科学研究项目(MHJY2024039) （MHJY2024039）
大学生创新训练项目(S202310624188) （S202310624188）
