妇儿健康导刊2025，Vol.4Issue(2)：188-192,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-115X.2025.02.042
延期妊娠孕妇阴道试产失败的影响因素及预测模型构建
Influencing factors and prediction model construction of vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy and construct a prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 178 pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy admitted to the People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from January 2019 to January 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.According to whether vaginal trial delivery was successful or not,they were divided into control group(140 cases,vaginal trial delivery was successful)and observation group(38 cases,vaginal trial delivery failed).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy,and a prediction model was established.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the value of the nomogram model.Results Univariate analysis showed that compared with the control group,the proportion of age>35 years old and body mass index≥26 kg/m2 in the observation group was higher,the cervical Bishop score at admission was lower,and the cervical length was longer(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis showed that age>35 years old,body mass index≥26 kg/m2,and long cervical length were independent risk factors for vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy(P<0.05).The high cervical Bishop score at admission was a protective factor for vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy(P<0.05).The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram for predicting the vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy was 0.991,with a sensitivity of 96.43%and a specificity of 94.74%.Conclusion Age>35 years,body mass index≥26 kg/m2,and long cervical length are independent risk factors for vaginal trial delivery failure in pregnant women with prolonged pregnancy,and a high cervical Bishop score at admission is a protective factor.The prediction model has high predictive value.关键词
延期妊娠/阴道试产/影响因素/预测模型Key words
Prolonged pregnancy/Vaginal trial delivery/Influencing factor/Prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
陈明彧,庞冬..延期妊娠孕妇阴道试产失败的影响因素及预测模型构建[J].妇儿健康导刊,2025,4(2):188-192,5.基金项目
广西壮族自治区卫生健康委员会自筹经费科研课题(Z20210554). （Z20210554）
