陕北白绒山羊体重预测数学模型的建立OA北大核心

Body weight is a key indicator of growth,development and economic traits in Shaanbei White cashmere goats.In this study,the correlation between body weight and different body size indexes and age of Shaanbei White cashmere goats were analyzed,and a mathematical model for body weight prediction was established,so as to provide a convenient method for the selection and breeding of Shaanbei White cashmere goats.Body height(X1),body length(X2),chest circumference(X3),cross height(X4)and tube circumference(X5)of 12 rams and 570 ewes aged 2-6 years,as well as age(X6)and body weight(Y)were determined,and correlation,path analysis and stepwise regression analy-ses were performed on the body weight,body size,and age of these goats with the use of Excel 2021 and SPSS 27.0.The optimal mathematical model for weight prediction was established and screened.The results showed that the high-est coefficient of correlation with body size indexes of adult male and female Shaanbei White cashmere goats was chest circumference in both cases(0.817 and 0.857,respectively).The optimal linear regression equation established for the prediction of body weight of adult rams in Shaanbei White cashmere goats was Y=0.797X3-22.568(R2=0.667,P<0.01),and for adult ewe was Y=0.665X2+0.674X3+0.078X4-72.850(R2=0.849,P<0.01).In summary,the chest circumference and body weight of adult rams are closely related,and chest circumference,body length and cross section height of adult ewes are closely related to body weight in Shaanbei White cashmere goats.The body weight prediction model es-tablished in this experiment can be applied in production practice to predict the body weight through the body measure-ments indexes,which can provide a convenient method for the selection and breeding of this breed of Shaanbei White cashmere goats in the later stage.