中国农村卫生事业管理2025，Vol.45Issue(1)：64-69,6.DOI:10.19955/j.cnki.1005-5916.2025.01.013
基于GM(1,1)模型的海南省卫生人力资源发展预测分析
A predictive analysis of health human resources development in Hainan Province based on GM(1,1)model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the status quo of health human resources allocation in Hainan Province and to predict the future development,so as to provide basis for optimal allocation.Methods Based on the raw data of health human resources in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022,GM(1,1)model was used to construct a prediction model for development trend analysis.Results From 2013 to 2022,the allocation of health human re-sources in Hainan increased year by year,and the average growth rates of the number of health technicians,li-censed(assistant)physicians and registered nurses per 1 000 population were 4.87％,5.63％and 5.98％,re-spectively.In 2022,the ratio of physicians to nurses was 1∶1.29,showing a first-rising-and-then-falling develop-ment trend.The forecast indicated that from 2023 to 2030,the average growth rates of the number of health techni-cians,licensed(assistant)physicians,and registered nurses per 1 000 population in Hainan Province would be 5.19％,6.26％,and 6.04％,respectively,and the ratio of physicians to nurses would drop to 1∶1.28.Con-clusions The health human resources in Hainan Province has grown steadily,but their level of education is rela-tively low,the structure of professional titles is improper,and the growth rate of registered nurses becomes weak.Relevant departments need to improve continuously the health personnel training mechanism and the academic qualifications of health resources,and attach great importance to the development mechanism of the nursing indus-try and improve the ratio of physicians to nurses to promote the sustainable development of health services.关键词
灰色系统理论/GM(1,1)模型/卫生人力资源/配置现状/预测分析/医护比/海南省Key words
Gray system theory/GM(1,1)model/Health human resources/Status quo of allocation/Predictive analysis/Ratio of physicians to nurses/Hainan Province分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
任琴,农意扬,袁瑜琳,杨芳,张新花..基于GM(1,1)模型的海南省卫生人力资源发展预测分析[J].中国农村卫生事业管理,2025,45(1):64-69,6.基金项目
国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心委托课题(03302219011D) （03302219011D）
