中国农学通报2025，Vol.41Issue(3)：98-106,9.
气候变暖对豫北地区冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响
The Impact of Climate Warming on Growth,Development,and Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Henan Province-Taking Qinyang City as an Example
摘要
Abstract
Climatic factors are the main factors affecting crop growth and development,and have a significant impact on crop growth,yield,and quality.In order to explore the characteristics of climate factor changes in northern Henan and their impact on winter wheat production,this study used agrometeorological observation data of winter wheat from 1984 to 2022 in Qinyang County,Henan Province,combined with meteorological observation data from the same period,and used methods such as linear tendency estimation,Mann Kendall test,HP filtering,and correlation analysis to study the quantitative impact of climate factor changes and climate yield during the growth period of winter wheat.The results showed that from 1984 to 2022,the temperature during the growth period of winter wheat showed a significant fluctuation and upward trend,with a climate tendency rate of 0.35℃/10a(P<0.05).There were obvious seasonal changes in temperature during the growth period,and a sudden change in temperature occurred in 1994.In the past 39 years,the accumulated temperature at≥0℃had increased,with a climate tendency rate of 53.5℃/10a(P>0.05),and the mutation points were in 2010 and 2021.The precipitation and sunshine hours during the growth period showed a fluctuating decreasing trend,with the linear tendency rates of 13.4 mm/10a(P>0.05)and-43.0 h/10a,respectively.Affected by climate change,the duration of winter wheat growth season was significantly shortened,and the yield was greatly affected by climate factors.Within a certain temperature range,the climate yield of winter wheat increased with the increase of temperature.For every 1℃increase in temperature,the climate yield increased by 14.53 g/m2.The suitable threshold for accumulated temperature of≥0℃during the growth period was 2281℃.There are differences in the impact of climate factors on the climate yield of winter wheat in different growth periods.The sunshine hours from tillering to over wintering,booting to heading,booting to heading temperature,heading to flowering,and precipitation throughout the entire growth period are key factors affecting winter wheat yield.This study can provide important references for regional winter wheat response to climate change and agricultural scientific decision-making.关键词
气候变化/冬小麦/生长发育/日照时数/气温/积温/降水量/Mann-Kendall检验/产量Key words
climate change/winter wheat/growth and development/sunshine hours/temperature/accumulated temperature/precipitation/mann-Kendall test/production分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张新刚..气候变暖对豫北地区冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2025,41(3):98-106,9.基金项目
河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目"气候变化背景下小麦育种方向和适应对策研究"(KM202237). （KM202237）
