长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(2)：23-28,61,7.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20231085
叶尔羌河流域水文气象要素演变规律及其与水力发电量的关联度分析
Change Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Elements in the Yarkand River Basin and Their Correlations with Hydroelectric Power Generation
摘要
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the trends and abrupt changes in hydrometeorological variables in the Yarkand River basin and their correlations with hydroelectric power generation.Various analytical methods,including the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Maximum Mutual Information Coefficient,were employed to investigate these as-pects over the period from 1960 to 2017.Findings indicated that precipitation,temperature,and runoff exhibited significant increasing trends during this period,whereas evapotranspiration and wind speed showed notable decrea-ses.Specifically,the upward trends in precipitation and runoff were more pronounced during the flood period,with rates of 0.49 mm/year and 0.86 mm/year,respectively,approximately 4.1 and 2.4 times those of the dry period.Seasonal analysis revealed significant upward trends in temperature and runoff across all seasons.Notably,signifi-cant increases in evapotranspiration were primarily observed during summer and autumn.Except from wind speed,abrupt changes in these hydrometeorological elements were detected around the 1990s,with multiple shift points ob-served in precipitation data.Hydropower generation was found to be directly linked to runoff,which is influenced by factors such as snowpack,air temperature,and soil temperature.As temperature rises,snow and ice melt acceler-ates,leading to increased runoff and consequently higher hydropower generation capacities.关键词
叶尔羌河流域/趋势分析/最大互信息系数/气候变化/水力发电Key words
Yarkand River Basin/trend analysis/maximum mutual information coefficient/climate change/hydro-electric power generation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
梁树超,翟保豫,李国庆,徐志,李子安,赵宇,彭旺..叶尔羌河流域水文气象要素演变规律及其与水力发电量的关联度分析[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(2):23-28,61,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52179016) （52179016）
长江设计集团有限公司自主科研项目(CX2019Z10) （CX2019Z10）
