电力信息与通信技术2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：1-10,10.DOI:10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.01
基于VECM的工业行业耦合关联特性分析与电力负荷预测
Research on Electricity Load Forecasting Technique Considering Inter-industry Coupling and Correlation Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
Due to the significant interdependence among various industries,especially between upstream and downstream sectors,their power loads often mutually influence each other,thereby increasing the complexity of power load forecasting.This study introduces the vector error correction model(VECM)from econometrics into the domain of power load analysis and prediction to examine the mechanism of interaction among multiple industries.The intricate coupling relationship between industries can be quantitatively characterized by considering their individual historical development as well as the impact from other sectors.Based on this model,accurate industry load prediction can be achieved.Comparison of examples shows that the load forecasting method proposed in this study based on the vector error correction model can well represent the coupling relationship between industries,thus providing better support for high-precision industry load forecasting.关键词
行业间耦合关联特性/向量误差修正模型/长短时记忆网络/行业负荷预测Key words
inter-industry coupling correlation properties/vector error correction model/long short-term memory networks/industry load forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
郭耀扬,张利,韦于思,李梦宇,郝颖,赵波..基于VECM的工业行业耦合关联特性分析与电力负荷预测[J].电力信息与通信技术,2025,23(2):1-10,10.基金项目
国家社科基金年度项目"电动汽车与配套电力供应链的系统发展路径研究"(19BJY077). （19BJY077）
