电力信息与通信技术2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：38-43,6.DOI:10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.05
基于报装容量的业扩影响电量预测模型的研究应用
Research and Application of Electricity Prediction Model of Power Business Expansion Based on Installed Capacity
赖国书 1吴国耀 1周昆 1朱玲玲 2兰智强 1黄笑盈 1茅琳玲3
作者信息
- 1. 国网福建省电力有限公司营销服务中心,福建省 福州市 350011
- 2. 国网福建省电力有限公司,福建省 福州市 350003
- 3. 福建省供电服务有限责任公司,福建省 厦门市 361006
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To accurately quantify the future electricity consumption planning of enterprises and producers,this paper focuses on the duration and degree of impact of expanding capacity changes on electricity sales,defines the impact life cycle of expansion,and establishes a contributing electricity prediction model through big data methods such as ARIMA,X-12 seasonal adjustment,user clustering and logistic regression.The model links the mapping chain from power business expansion to electric power consumption and predicts the change of electric power consumption through electricity installation.After tracking and training,the model's prediction accuracy has exceeded 90%,which better interprets the relationship between power business expansion and electricity sales and accurately predict the development trend of power business expansion capacity and map the industry prosperity.关键词
电力报装/大数据分析/电量预测/时间序列Key words
power business expansion/big data analysis/electricity prediction/time series分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
赖国书,吴国耀,周昆,朱玲玲,兰智强,黄笑盈,茅琳玲..基于报装容量的业扩影响电量预测模型的研究应用[J].电力信息与通信技术,2025,23(2):38-43,6.
