干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(2)：179-189,11.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.350
CMA-MESO模式暖季小时及日降水预报性能评估
Evaluation of hourly and daily precipitation forecasting performance of the CMA-MESO model in the warm season:A case of the Ili River Valley
摘要
Abstract
The performance evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts can provide a scientific basis for the application and improvement of such forecasts.In this study,hourly site precipitation observation data and the CMA-MESO model's quantitative precipitation forecast data from May to September(the warm season)of 2022-2023.Using evaluation indicators such as the probability of correct rainfall,threat score(TS),false alarm ratio,and missed alarm ratio,precipitation forecast performance over the Ili River Valley was analyzed.The re-sults revealed the following:(1)The CMA-MESO model can reasonably depict the 1 h and 24 h precipitation characteristics in the Ili River Valley during the warm season.As the precipitation intensity increases,both the forecast and observed frequencies of precipitation show a downward trend.(2)The TS for the CMA-MESO mod-el forecast of precipitation of different intensities is closely related to the forecast bias of the accumulated precipi-tation probability.The 24 h precipitation forecast TS score for the range of 6.1-12.0 mm is the lowest,with the highest cumulative probability forecast bias,exceeding a mean of 2.0%.The 1 h forecast TS score significantly decreases with the enhancement of precipitation intensity,reaching a peak bias of 1.7%at 0.1 mm.(3)The fre-quency of the forecasted and observed precipitation shows an increasing trend with altitude.However,the 24 h forecast frequency exhibits a negative bias across all altitudes,while the 1 h forecast frequency shows a positive bias in the low-altitude areas and a negative bias in the sub-high-altitude areas.(4)In terms of diurnal variation,the CMA-MESO model did not accurately simulate the characteristic of low precipitation frequency during the day and higher frequency during the night in the Ili River Valley.Specifically,the model tends to have more false alarms for daytime precipitation and more missed alarms for nighttime precipitation.A comparison of the frequen-cy of precipitation observations with forecasts shows that the pattern of the forecast trend from early morning to afternoon is completely opposite to the observed frequency;the most significant forecast biases occurs be-tween 13:00-14:00 and 02:00-05:00.关键词
CMA-MESO/降水评估/暖季/小时及日降水/伊犁河谷Key words
CMA-MESO/evaluation of precipitation forecast/the warm season/hourly and daily precipita-tion/the Ili River Valley引用本文复制引用
牟欢,陈春艳,杨霞,赵丽..CMA-MESO模式暖季小时及日降水预报性能评估[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(2):179-189,11.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A292) （2022D01A292）
高寒山区致洪雨雪冰事件源头风险识别与动态监测预报(2022B03021-1) （2022B03021-1）
天山英才培养计划(2023TSYCCX0077)资助 （2023TSYCCX0077）
