干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(2)：236-245,10.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.05
基于相似误差订正方法的宁夏冬季气温模式产品解释应用
Model explanation and application of winter temperature in Ningxia based on the similarity error correction method
摘要
Abstract
The frequent alternation of cold and warm events in the winter months has increased the difficulty and challenge of short-term climate prediction.Additionally,the overall prediction level of the climate dynamic mod-els for winter temperatures in Ningxia was not high,resulting in an unstable prediction quality.The development of the model interpretation application method,combining dynamics and statistics,was effective in improving the prediction quality and is crucial for the urgent development of the provincial short-term climate prediction busi-ness.This article is based on the EC model historical calculations over the past 30 years of the MODES second-generation products of the National Climate Center,the monthly average winter temperatures observation data from 19 national meteorological stations in Ningxia,and the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data.Using the similarity error correction method,we combined the information of key circulation areas during the same peri-od for model interpretation and application of winter temperatures to improve the accuracy and objectivity of cli-mate trend prediction in Ningxia.The results revealed that the original prediction outcomes of the EC model have relatively high prediction skills for winter temperatures,especially regarding grasping trends and abnormal levels.After adopting a similar error correction scheme,the EC model can still effectively improve its prediction skills for winter temperatures in Ningxia,with a particularly significant improvement in December and January.After correction,the PS and PC scores were higher than 70%and 64%,respectively.Additionally,when the average temperature anomaly was positive in January and negative in December and February,the prediction skills im-proved more significantly;the larger the magnitude of the lower temperature,the more significant the improve-ment.Moreover,the magnitude of the model error did not significantly impact the forecast correction effect.Even when the absolute value of the model error was large,this correction scheme could still improve the winter month-ly temperature prediction skills to varying degrees.Therefore,the similarity error correction method could further improve the forecast accuracy of the winter temperature trend and anomaly level in Ningxia under large model er-rors,improving the stability of the model forecast skill and providing a positive application value in practical ser-vice.关键词
宁夏/冬季气温/相似误差订正方法/模式产品/解释应用Key words
Ningxia/winter temperature/similarity error correction method/model product/interpretation and application引用本文复制引用
王岱,马阳,张雯,李欣,黄莹,王素艳..基于相似误差订正方法的宁夏冬季气温模式产品解释应用[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(2):236-245,10.基金项目
宁夏智能数字预报技术研究与应用科技创新团队(2024CXTD006) （2024CXTD006）
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室开放研究项目(CAMF-202202) （CAMF-202202）
第七批宁夏回族自治区青年科技人才托举工程 （）
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03792) （2023AAC03792）
