中外公路2025，Vol.45Issue(1)：42-52,11.DOI:10.14048/j.issn.1671-2579.2025.01.005
进藏公路交通阻断状态判别及预测模型
Identification and Prediction Model for Traffic Blockage State of Highways to Xizang
摘要
Abstract
To identify the traffic blockage state on highways to Xizang in extreme environments,comprehensive evaluation indicators for traffic blockage state based on the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method were proposed by using the traffic blockage event parameters observed on four major highways to Xizang:Sichuan-Xizang Highway,Yunnan-Xizang Highway,Qinghai-Xizang Highway,and Xinjiang-Xizang Highway.The K-Medoids clustering algorithm was used to categorize the traffic blockage state into different levels.By considering factors such as hazard types,road types,traffic volume,and vehicle type ratios,a classification model for the traffic blockage state on highways to Xizang was constructed based on machine learning algorithms.The results show that the Qinghai-Xizang Highway has the highest average blockage duration,length,and severity.The Sichuan-Xizang Highway,while having a slightly lower duration compared to the Qinghai-Xizang Highway,has a shorter average blockage length,resulting in a lower overall severity of blockage events.Compared with the Yunnan-Xizang Highway,the Xinjiang-Xizang Highway has a higher average blockage duration,yet both have shorter traffic blockage length,leading to lower blockage severity.The identification model based on entropy-weighted TOPSIS and K-Medoids clustering can effectively distinguish between different levels of the traffic blockage state on highways to Xizang.The LightGBM algorithm achieves the highest accuracy on the test set,with an accuracy rate of 96.5%.The results indicate that due to differences in geological terrain,climate,traffic volume,and primary functions of each route,there are differences in the traffic blockage characteristics.The model proposed effectively classifies and predicts the traffic blockage state on highways to Xizang with promising accuracy.关键词
交通安全/进藏公路/交通阻断/状态判别/极端环境Key words
traffic safety/highway to Xizang/traffic blockage/state identification/extreme environment分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
吴玲,刘建蓓,张志伟,单东辉,叱干都..进藏公路交通阻断状态判别及预测模型[J].中外公路,2025,45(1):42-52,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2022YFC3002600) （编号:2022YFC3002600）
