菌物学报2025，Vol.44Issue(2)：28-43,16.DOI:10.13346/j.mycosystema.240192
基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测环状镰孢的潜在适生区
Prediction of the potential suitable areas for pine pitch canker pathogen Fusarium circinatum utilizing an optimized MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Pine pitch canker,caused by Fusarium circinatum,is one of the most important diseases of Pinus species.In order to reduce the risks associated with the potential introduction and subsequent epidemic of this quarantine pathogen under climate change,the optimized Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model was used to predict the potential geographic distribution of F.circinatum in China,and the centroid movement track was also analyzed.The results revealed that the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of F.circinatum were mean diurnal temperature range,isothermality,temperature seasonality,mean temperature of coldest quarter,and annual precipitation.Under current climate conditions,the suitable distribution area of F.circinatum in China was approximately 3.09x106 square kilometers,constituting 32.23％of the nation's land area.The suitable distribution area was primarily situated in the central,eastern,and southern regions of the country,within subtropical climate zones.Under future climate scenarios,specifically the low-forcing Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 126(SSP126)and the high-forcing SSP585,the suitable area for the pathogen in China is expected to be expanded,with the geographic centroid of the suitable habitat shifting northward.关键词
气候变化/环状镰孢/MaxEnt模型/适生区/质心Key words
climate change/Fusarium circinatum/MaxEnt model/suitable distribution area/centroid引用本文复制引用
王心,闫子怡,游崇娟..基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测环状镰孢的潜在适生区[J].菌物学报,2025,44(2):28-43,16.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFE0116200)This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFE0116200). （2023YFE0116200）
