人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：21-28,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.02.003
基于CMIP6模式下黑龙江省的未来气象干旱演变预估
Based on the Prediction of Future Drought Evolution in Heilongjiang Province under the CMIP6 Model
摘要
Abstract
Meteorological drought is an important environmental issue in the context of global climate change and has a profound impact on ecosystems,agriculture and water resources management.In order to better predict the evolution of meteorological drought in the next 81 years(2020-2100),based on the 14 climate patterns of CMIP 6,the two kinds of SSP245 and SSP585,combined with the standardized precipitation index(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)and Mann-Kendall test,analyzed the meteorological drought trend and its spatial distribution at different time scales.The results show that the temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang province will rise significantly in the future,especially in the SSP585 scenario;except in summer,spring,autumn and winter are dry,and the meteorological drought events are mainly concentrated in the western and southeastern regions.This study provides a scientific basis for water resources management and meteorological drought response strategies in Heilongjiang Province.关键词
SPEI指数/Mann-Kendall检验/CMIP6/黑龙江省Key words
SPEI index/Mann-Kendall test/CMIP6/Heilongjiang Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘涛,司振江,刘岩..基于CMIP6模式下黑龙江省的未来气象干旱演变预估[J].人民珠江,2025,46(2):21-28,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFD1500402) （2022YFD1500402）
