人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：37-46,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.02.005
基于QM校正的雅鲁藏布江流域径流预估
Runoff Prediction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin Based on QM Correction
摘要
Abstract
The accuracy of runoff prediction is of great significance to water resource management,flood prevention,and drought relief.To accurately predict the future runoff variation trend of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin,the QM correction model was used to correct the future climate model data.The corrected data was used as input items for the SWAT hydrological model,which could greatly improve the accuracy of runoff prediction.The SWAT hydrological model was constructed in four sections including Lazi,Nuogesha,Yangcun,and Nuxia to obtain a more reliable runoff variation trend.It is found that under the SSP126 scenario,runoff at the Nuogesha section decreases by 0.8%,while runoff at the Nuxia,Yangcun,and Lazi sections increases by 1.1%,0.6%and 0.3%respectively,compared to historical periods.In the SSP585 scenario,the runoff of four sections increased by 6.3%,4.3%,4.9%,and 3.9%respectively,compared to historical periods.Overall,the runoff of the Yajiang River is on the rise in the near future.关键词
QM校正模型/SWAT水文模型/径流/预测/雅鲁藏布江流域Key words
QM correction model/SWAT hydrological model/runoff/forecast/Yarlung Zangbo River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
姜曦..基于QM校正的雅鲁藏布江流域径流预估[J].人民珠江,2025,46(2):37-46,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(91847301、92047203) （91847301、92047203）
