人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：56-66,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.02.007
基于年最大值法和超阈值法的郁江多变量洪水频率分析
Multivariable Flood Frequency Analysis of the Yujiang River Based on Annual Maximum Method and Peaks Over Threshold Method
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,significant changes in hydrological and engineering conditions have been observed in the Yujiang River Basin,and climate anomalies have increased flood control pressures.The distribution of rainstorms and floods within the basin varies significantly,which makes it insufficient to describe flood risk solely from the perspective of flood peak or flood volume,and further study is necessitated.This paper takes the runoff data(1947-2015)from the Guigang Station as the research object and extracts flood sequences through the annual maximum(AM)method and the peaks over threshold(POT)method.Three common Archimedean Copula functions are employed to establish the multivariate joint distribution of flood variables,and their joint return periods and co-occurrence return periods are compared and analyzed.Results show that the optimal marginal distributions respectively obtained through the AM method and the POT method differ,with Clayton Copula being the optimal fitting function for the AM method and Frank Copula for the POT method.While the joint and co-occurrence return periods calculated through both methods show little difference,under the same return period,the POT method yields more reliable results for flood peak and flood volume.The findings can provide a valuable reference for decision-making in aspects of flood mitigation,engineering construction,and management in the Yujiang River Basin.关键词
多变量洪水频率分析/年最大值法/超阈值法/Copula函数/重现期/郁江Key words
multivariable flood frequency analysis/annual maximum method/peaks over threshold method/Copula functions/return period/Yujiang River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈权富,李勋贵..基于年最大值法和超阈值法的郁江多变量洪水频率分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(2):56-66,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52269001) （52269001）
广西壮族自治区应急管理厅应急管理联合创新科技攻关项目(Ⅰ类:重点培育项目)(2024GXYJ005) （Ⅰ类:重点培育项目）
广西自然科学基金(2021GXNSFAA220085) （2021GXNSFAA220085）
