四川林业科技2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：91-96,6.DOI:10.12172/202407230001
基于气象因子的松墨天牛成虫发生期预测
Prediction of the adult stages of Monochamus alternatus based on meterological fators
付文健 1杨伟 2唐婷 3巫山 4刘素容 2唐亮东1
作者信息
- 1. 崇州市规划和自然资源局,四川崇州 611230
- 2. 四川农业大学林学院森林保护实验室,四川成都 611130
- 3. 崇州市气象局,四川崇州 611230
- 4. 成都市林业和草原有害生物防治检疫站,四川成都 610041
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In a bid of scientifically scheming the tasks of controlling the intensity of M.alternatus popularity,the prediction models for four adult stages,those were the onset,the incipient peak,the peaking season and the last maximum,were originally figured out under the method of stepwise regression analysis with the logs originated from the trapped M.alternatus over the years of 2017-2022 and from the meteorological factors(average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,average temperature,average precipitation and average relative air humanity)in each early-month,mid-month and late-month occured contemporarily in Chongzhou City,Sichuan Province,China.Then,the models were established after being checked out with the relative data in 2023.The experimental results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model for four adult stages reached 96.4％within the permitted range of the tolerance deviations±3 d,which had high accuracy.关键词
松墨天牛/预测模型/气象因子/逐步回归分析Key words
Monochamus alternatus/prediction model/meteorological factor/stepwise regression analysis引用本文复制引用
付文健,杨伟,唐婷,巫山,刘素容,唐亮东..基于气象因子的松墨天牛成虫发生期预测[J].四川林业科技,2025,46(1):91-96,6.
