山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.39Issue(3)：1-8,8.
基于FTA-BN模型的城市道路质量风险关键致因分析
Analysis of key causal factors of urban road quality risk based on FTA-BN modeling
摘要
Abstract
In order to deeply study the influencing factors of urban road quality risk,a combined fault tree analysis(FTA)-Bayesian network(BN)analysis method is proposed.The causes of urban road quality risk are analyzed from three aspects:human,material,and environment.Based on qualitative a-nalysis of the system,the causal relationship of the risk factors is represented by the FTA and subsequent-ly the fault tree is mapped into a BN model.Netica software is used for parameter learning to find out the key causal factors of urban road quality risk through a posteriori probabilistic reasoning and importance reasoning,and to formulate corresponding risk control measures.The results indicate that pipeline leak-age,excessive road load,construction disturbance,rush to work,and negligence in supervision have sig-nificant impact on the urban road quality,representing key causes of the risk occurrences.关键词
城市道路/质量风险管理/贝叶斯网络/故障树/关键致因Key words
urban roads/quality risk management/Bayesian network/fault tree/key causal factor分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张茜,申建红,王思冉,孟子祥..基于FTA-BN模型的城市道路质量风险关键致因分析[J].山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,39(3):1-8,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(72304161) （72304161）
