海洋气象学报2025，Vol.45Issue(1)：59-68,10.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20221024001
海南岛强台风事件的影响因子探析
Analysis on influencing factors of violent typhoon events affecting Hainan Island
摘要
Abstract
Based on typhoon data,natural disaster data of Hainan,reanalysis data,and using several statistical analysis methods,15 violent typhoon events affecting Hainan Island are selected from 1967 to 2015,and the influencing factors of HNVTE(Hainan violent typhoon event)are analyzed.The results show that the climatic background of HNVTE is under the joint influence of multi-time scale factors.The abrupt change of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)getting stronger in the late 1980s may provide the interdecadal-scale background for the decrease of HNVTE,and the combined action of ENSO(El Niño-Southern Oscillation)and stratospheric QBO(quasi-biennial oscillation)provides an interannual anomaly background for the variation of HNVTE.The moderate La Nina state before the abrupt change of WNPSH and the moderate El Niño state after the abrupt change of WNPSH are both favorable for the occurrence of HNVTE,but the HNVTE activity in the two states is inhibited by the low-level strong westerly shear under the stratospheric westerly phase.The occurrence of HNVTE can be well identified by the BEST-QBO synergy index constructed from the SST(sea surface temperature)interdecadal phase of the western North Pacific,ENSO cyclic phase and intensity,and QBO phase and intensity,which can provide a useful signal for the climatic prediction of HNVTE.关键词
海南岛/强台风事件/影响因子/协同指数Key words
Hainan Island/violent typhoon event/influencing factor/synergy index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴胜安,邢彩盈,朱晶晶..海南岛强台风事件的影响因子探析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(1):59-68,10.基金项目
海南省自然科学基金青年基金项目(423QN319) （423QN319）
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-103) （FPZJ2023-103）
国家自然科学基金项目(41785005) （41785005）
