沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(1)：112-119,8.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2303.02002
基于分位数映射法的强降水预报
Heavy Rain Forecast Based on Quantile Mapping Method:a Case Study of Short-Duration Heavy Rain in Sichuan
摘要
Abstract
Based on hourly surface precipitation observation data from Sichuan Province and ECMWF model data,the distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy rain were analyzed.Forecast factors with clear physical significance were selected from the dynamical,thermal,and moisture-related predictors,and the corresponding quantile values for each predictor were obtained using the quantile mapping method.Combining this with the ingredients-based methodology,probability forecast products for short-duration heavy rain were developed and applied for operational purposes.The results showed the following:(1)Temporal and spatial variations of short-duration heavy rain in the basin are significant.The frequency of short-duration heavy rain is low from 12:00 to 17:00,gradually increasing after 18:00,with a peak at 02:00,followed by a significant decrease thereafter.The lowest proportion of short-duration heavy precipitation occurs at 12:00.The majority of short-duration heavy rain events are concentrated in the western part of the basin,which is characterized by steep slopes.(2)Forecast evaluations demonstrated that regions with a probability greater than 35％show a significant correlation with short-duration heavy rain events.The probability forecast products effectively identify areas prone to short-duration heavy rain,with fewer false alarms,particularly when the ECMWF 3-hour cumulative precipitation forecast is weak.关键词
短时强降水/分位数映射法/"配料"法/概率预报Key words
short-duration heavy rain/quantile mapping method/ingredient-based methodology/probability forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹萍萍,肖递祥,王佳津,冯良敏..基于分位数映射法的强降水预报[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(1):112-119,8.基金项目
中国气象局2024年复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-111) （FPZJ2024-111）
川西南(雅安)暴雨实验室科技发展基金项目(CXNBYSYSYWZD202405) （雅安）
四川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队 （）
