新医学2025，Vol.56Issue(1)：53-59,7.DOI:10.12464/j.issn.0253-9802.2024-0286
轻度胃肠炎伴婴幼儿良性惊厥反复发作风险的列线图模型
Nomogram model for the risk of recurrent episodes of benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the correlation between recurrent episodes of benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis(BICE)and enterovirus and cytokines,and establish a nomogram prediction model,providing reference for early identification of children with high-risk recurrent episodes of BICE.Methods Eighty-five cases diagnosed with BICE in Department of Neurology,Women and Children's Hospital of Ningbo University from December 2021 to December 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.According to the seizure frequency,they were divided into the observation group(≥2 times)and control group(1 time).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the correlation between recurrent episodes of BICE and enterovirus and cytokines.A prediction model was constructed and a nomogram was drawn.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and decision curve analysis were employed to analyze,evaluate and verify the prediction model.Results Among the 85 children,60 cases were included in the observation group and 25 were included in the control group.In the observation group,the positive rate of norovirus,IL-6 and IL-10 levels were higher than those in the control group,and the differences were statistically significant(all P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that norovirus,IL-6 and IL-10 levels were the independent risk factors for recurrent episodes of BICE(all P＜0.05).A nomogram model was constructed based on these three risk factors.The ROC curve was drawn to evaluate the prediction model.The area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.869(75%for the sensitivity,84%for the specificity).Calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated that the prediction model yielded high prediction efficiency.Conclusions Norovirus,IL-6 and IL-10 levels are associated with recurrent episodes of BICE.The nomogram model based on these three factors yields high prediction accuracy and high clinical application value and promptly assesses the risk of recurrent episodes of BICE in children,thereby formulating early interventions.关键词
轻度胃肠炎伴婴幼儿良性惊厥/婴幼儿/诺如病毒/列线图/细胞因子Key words
Benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis/Infant/Norovirus/Nomogram/Cytokines引用本文复制引用
姚俊强,张玲..轻度胃肠炎伴婴幼儿良性惊厥反复发作风险的列线图模型[J].新医学,2025,56(1):53-59,7.基金项目
浙江省医药卫生项目(2020KY883) （2020KY883）
