中国防汛抗旱2025，Vol.35Issue(2)：19-23,5.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025035
基于径流特性的BP神经网络模型在中长期来水预报中的应用
Application of BP neural network model based on runoff characteristics in medium and long term inflow forecasting—A case study of Yuqiao Reservoir in Tianjin City
摘要
Abstract
Medium and long-term runoff forecasting is the key to the implementation of effective water resources scheduling and scientific management in the basin.The screening of forecasting factors is of great significance for improving the accuracy of forecasting.Yuqiao Reservoir in Tianjin City is selected as the forecast object,and the measured runoff process is analyzed.Based on the runoff characteristics,the dry and wet seasons are divided.The dry season is divided into two periods:from November to following February and from March to June.The wet season is from July to October.The influencing factors affecting the cross-section flow process of Yuqiao Reservoir were determined.The BP neural network model is used for segmented forecasting,and the overall annual runoff was forecasted and compared.The monthly data from 1999 to 2020 are used for training,and the overall results from 2021 to 2023 are used for verification.The results show that the R2 of the segmented forecast by dividing the dry season and the wet season is 0.31 higher than that of the whole year,the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)is optimized by 25.41%,and the relative error(RE)is reduced by 19.32%.Compared with the annual calculation,the annual relative errors of the segmented calculation and forecast from 2021 to 2023 are increased by 24.96%,16.30%and 6.38%,respectively.The results of segmented forecast based on runoff characteristics in dry and wet seasons are better than those of annual forecasting,which can provide data basis for fine scheduling and scientific management of water resources in the basin.关键词
径流特性/中长期来水预报/BP神经网络/于桥水库/天津市Key words
runoff characteristics/medium and long term incoming water forecasting/BP neural network/Yuqiao Reservoir/Tianjin City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
付佳祥,孙甲岚,李匡,黄颖,冯晓乐,梁雅琪..基于径流特性的BP神经网络模型在中长期来水预报中的应用[J].中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(2):19-23,5.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3209202) （2023YFC3209202）
天津市防洪调度应急指挥平台建设项目(JZ120205A0042024). （JZ120205A0042024）
