肿瘤药学2024，Vol.14Issue(6)：747-752,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1264.2024.06.14
中晚期原发性肝细胞癌ICIs相关不良反应风险预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and verification of risk prediction model for ICIs-related adverse events of advanced primary hepatocellular carcinoma
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the incidence of immune checkpoint inhibitors(ICIs)-related adverse events(irAEs)in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),and to develop and validate a risk prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 186 HCC patients treated with ICIs between June 2018 and June 2023.The patients were divided into the irAE group and the control group based on whether they experienced an irAE.Logistic regression was employed to identify independent factors influencing the occurrence of irAEs in patients with advanced HCC and to construct a risk prediction model.Furthermore,the model was validated using the Bootstrap internal validation method and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC).Results A total of 71 patients with advanced HCC who received ICIs developed irAEs.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis of the two groups revealed that age,Child-Pugh score,clinical stage,prognostic nutritional index(PNI),systemic immune inflamma-tion index(SII),and treatment regimen were independent factors influencing the occurrence of irAEs in patients.Based on these findings,a nomogram model for predicting the risk of irAEs was constructed,with a mean absolute error of 0.02.The performance of this model was evaluated using ROC,resulting in an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.891(95%CI:0.845-0.937).The optimal cut-off value was 280,with a sensitivity of 83.10%and a specificity of 80.87%.Conclusion Age,Child-Pugh score,clinical stage,PNI,SII,and treatment regimen were independent factors influencing the occurrence of irAEs in HCC patients after ICIs treatment.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors could effectively pre-dict the risk of irAEs in patients with advanced HCC,demonstrating significant clinical value.关键词
肝细胞癌/免疫检查点抑制剂/免疫治疗相关不良反应/危险因素/列线图/预测模型Key words
Hepatocellular carcinoma/Immune checkpoint inhibitor/Immune-related adverse reaction/Risk factor/Alignment chart/Prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
宋发祥,郭社民,王静..中晚期原发性肝细胞癌ICIs相关不良反应风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].肿瘤药学,2024,14(6):747-752,6.基金项目
河南省卫生计生委科研课题(20221600). （20221600）
