北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.25Issue(2)：1-14,14.DOI:10.12120/bjutskxb202502001
中国迈向中等发达国家的有利发展条件与展望(2000-2035年)
China's Favorable Development Conditions and Prospects Towards a Moderately Developed Country(2000-2035)
摘要
Abstract
One of the core goals of Chinese path to modernization development in 2035 is to achieve per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries.Upon the analysis of the major economic changes in the world and China from 2000 to 2023,especially China's transition from low income to middle low income,then to middle high income,and finally to high-income level,the paper predicts that China's economic growth trend will maintain a medium to high speed from 2023 to 2035,and GDP or per capita GDP and labor productivity will be doubled in amount in 2035compared to that in 2020,for China has eight medium and long-term favorable development conditions and capabilities for her to reach the level of a moderately developed country.The favorable conditions are:(1)maintain a relatively high domestic savings rate in the world;(2)have a high domestic investment rate in the world;(3)maintain a high-speed GDP growth;(4)maintain a medium to high growth rate in the manufacturing industry;(5)have a huge human resource;(6)owe a significantly expanding middle-income group;(7)remain the world's largest domestic consumer market;(8)remain the world's largest goods-export market.In the end,the paper points out that the most critical decisive factor is always the CPC's long-term governance and correct leadership for the people,and summarizes the historical and global significance of Chinese path to modernization.关键词
中国式现代化/中国式经济现代化/中国经济增长趋势及来源/中等发达国家/经济发展动力Key words
Chinese modernization/Chinese economic modernization/the trend and sources of China's economic growth/moderately developed country/economic development motivation分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
胡鞍钢..中国迈向中等发达国家的有利发展条件与展望(2000-2035年)[J].北京工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,25(2):1-14,14.基金项目
中宣部全国哲学社会科学工作办公室国家高端智库专项(20155010298) （20155010298）
清华大学文科"双高"专项(53120600119) （53120600119）
