国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(2)：1-6,24,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.02.001
"稳中有变"下探寻能源均衡之道
Exploring the path to energy equilibrium development amid stability with changes
钱兴坤 1陆如泉 1罗良才 1吴谋远 1廖钦1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
In 2024,the oil and gas industry as a whole presented a trend of"stability with changes".The"stability"is reflected in such five aspects as the world economy still showed resilience,laying a solid foundation for the development of the industry,the scale of global energy production and consumption increased steadily,the fundamentals dominated the trend of international oil and gas prices with the price center moving downward,global energy transition continued to advance and the proportion of non-fossil energy boosted steadily,and international oil companies pragmatically and rationally promoted the core-focusing of oil and gas and new energy businesses.The"changes"are presented in such four aspects as the continuous escalation of global geopolitical conflicts led to the shock and reshaping of the international pattern and global governance,the growth engine of the global oil and gas market demand shifted with India leading the growth of oil demand and the center of gravity of natural gas demand shifting to the Asia-Pacific region,the adjustment of the energy structure for transportation reshaped the demand pattern and the consumption of refined oil peaked ahead of schedule,and China took the initiative to reform and seek changes as well as energy legal framework construction made significant breakthroughs.Looking ahead to 2025,the oil and gas industry will enter a new development environment of"seeking stability amid changes".The"changes"will reflect in such four aspects as the further escalation of US sanctions adds a great deal of uncertainty to the global political and economic landscape,the intensification of strategic games among major powers exposes the international community to the risk of disorder and loss of control,the global energy transition process faces short-term setbacks,and geopolitical conflicts increase the uncertainty of the international oil and gas market.The"stability"will be mainly reflected in such following aspects as China's economic growth rate remains robust at about 5%,China's energy demand continues to grow and its supply also steadily increases,China's energy transition is advancing in an orderly manner,and the high-quality development of international cooperation and high-level security will bring out the best in each other.关键词
地缘政治/能源转型/油气行业/展望Key words
geopolitics/energy transition/oil and gas industry/outlook分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
钱兴坤,陆如泉,罗良才,吴谋远,廖钦.."稳中有变"下探寻能源均衡之道[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(2):1-6,24,7.
