林业与生态科学2025，Vol.40Issue(1)：1-7,7.DOI:10.13320/j.cnki.hjfor.2025.0001
白桦次生林间伐后林冠开度动态变化与预测
Dynamic change and prediction of canopy openness of Betula platy phylla secondary forest after thinning
摘要
Abstract
The dynamics of canopy openness after thinning play an important role in forest management and ecological processes.Due to the long and complex process of its changes,predicting canopy openness is particularly important.In the secondary Betula platyphylla forest of Taoshan Forest Farm,one thinning plot with a size of 50 mX50 m and one control plot were set up,and eight canopy images before and after thinning were obtained using hemispherical photography from 2012 to 2023.The differences in canopy openness between different periods were compared through one-way analysis of variance.The Markov model,GM(1,1)model,Grey Markov model,and regression model(exponential function model,logarithmic function model)were used to predict and compare the accuracy of canopy open-ness after thinning.The results showed that:(1)The canopy openness of the secondary Betula platyphylla forest decreased rapidly in the first three years after thinning,and the decline rate slowed down with the increase of time.In the ninth year after thinning,the can-opy openness basically returned to the pre-thinning level,and the trend of change in canopy openness in the control plot was flat.(2)The relative errors predicted by Markov model,Grey Markov model,and regression model were all less than 10％,and the prediction results were relatively accurate;The prediction errors of GM(1,1)model and Grey Markov model increased with time,and the prediction accuracy of Grey Markov model was higher than that of GM(1,1)model.Therefore,Markov model,Grey Markov model,and regression model all produce good predictive performance,while Markov model is the most suitable.关键词
间伐/林冠开度/半球摄影法/GM(1,1)模型/马尔科夫模型/灰色马尔可夫模型/回归模型Key words
thinning/canopy openness/Hemispherical photography/GM(1,1)model/Markov model/Grey Markov model/regression model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
董中康,杨彩琪,李永宁,付立华,张菲,张岩..白桦次生林间伐后林冠开度动态变化与预测[J].林业与生态科学,2025,40(1):1-7,7.基金项目
十四五科技支撑项目(2022YFD2200503-02). （2022YFD2200503-02）
