海洋预报2025，Vol.42Issue(1)：1-10,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2025.01.001
基于数值模拟的2024年10月渤海和黄海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析
Causal analysis of the October 2024 seawater backflow event along the coasts of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea based on numerical simulation
摘要
Abstract
A rare strong extratropical storm surge event occurred along the coasts of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea from October 18 to 21,2024,resulting in seawater backward in some low-lying areas of Liaoning Province,Hebei Province,and Tianjin City.The storm surge was divided into two stages:the first stage was caused by strong cold air,and the second stage was caused by edge waves.To explore its causes,this study conducted a numerical simulation of the storm surge using NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)reanalysis wind fields.The root mean squared error of the reanalysis wind speed at the buoy locations in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea was 2.1 m/s.The average relative errors of the simulated maximum storm surge at coastal tidal gauges in the first and second stages are 13.7%and 8.2%respectively,proving that the numerical simulation can accurately reproduce the movement and propagation of the storm surge,that is,the edge waves propagate counterclockwise from the western coast of the Korean Peninsula to the northern coast of the Yellow Sea,the coast of the Bohai Sea,and the southern coast of the Yellow Sea.Using the numerical simulation results to analyze the flow rates in the southern Yellow Sea section and the Bohai Strait section,it was found that the inflow of seawater in the second stage was 66%and 75%higher than the outflow in the first stage,which explains the reason why the storm surge caused by edge waves in the second stage is large,wide-ranging and long-lasting.In addition,the contributions of edge waves and winds to the storm surge in the second stage were 94%and 6%,respectively,with edge waves playing an absolutely dominant role.关键词
渤海和黄海沿岸/强冷空气/风暴潮/海水倒灌/边缘波/数值模拟/半封闭陆架海Key words
coastal areas of Bohai and Yellow Seas/strong cold air/storm surge/seawater backflow/edge wave/numerical simulation/semi-closed continental shelf sea分类
海洋学引用本文复制引用
傅赐福,于福江,董剑希,高义,李明杰..基于数值模拟的2024年10月渤海和黄海沿岸海水倒灌事件成因分析[J].海洋预报,2025,42(1):1-10,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42394134、42430407). （42394134、42430407）
