海洋预报2025，Vol.42Issue(1)：71-80,10.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2025.01.009
基于谱逼近探究台风初始场误差对路径误差的影响
An exploration of the influence of typhoon initial field error on path error based on spectral nudging
摘要
Abstract
Based on multi-layer nested Weather Research Forecasting Model(WRF),the effects of different hot initializing methods on the simulation accuracy of No.1713 Typhoon"Hato"were studied,and No.1614 Typhoon"Meranti",No.1822 Typhoon"Mangkhut"and No.2309 Typhoon"Saola"are chosen as verification cases.The results showed that spectral nudging method could reduce the errors of large scale environment and initial field of the WRF model,and improve the environment field of the typhoon,which can avoid the elevation of vertical wind shear and cumulative rainfall,and weaken the intensity of the asymmetric convective activity of the typhoon.Otherwise,the diabatic heating would weaken the guidance of the horizontal advection to the typhoons,leading to an increase in the simulation error of typhoon paths within 24～72 hours.关键词
初始场误差/非对称对流/位涡趋势诊断/路径误差Key words
initial field error/asymmetric convection/potential vorticity tendency diagnosis/typhoon track error分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
梁东,来志刚,英晓明,曾志豪,高娜,赵明利..基于谱逼近探究台风初始场误差对路径误差的影响[J].海洋预报,2025,42(1):71-80,10.基金项目
自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室自主设立课题(MESTA-2022-C005) （MESTA-2022-C005）
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3106203). （2022YFC3106203）
