经济与管理研究2025，Vol.46Issue(2)：3-23,21.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2025.02.001
机器人应用与全要素生产率
Robot Application and Total Factor Productivity
摘要
Abstract
With the in-depth advancement of a new wave of scientific and technological revolution,the modern production mode with industrial robots as its core carrier is becoming a key force in reshaping the global competitive pattern.However,the distribution of new technologies across economies is unbalanced.If developed economies with high productivity reap greater benefits from technological changes,they will inevitably widen their gap with low-productivity economies and weaken the latter's ability to participate in the international division of labor.This not only harms the benefits of low-productivity economies but also has an important impact on the trend of the scientific and technological competition game pattern of great powers.Therefore,understanding the characteristics and development trends of intelligent technologies such as robots and analyzing their potential effects on total factor productivity(TFP)and productivity divergence among economies are of important theoretical and practical significance. Using the International Federation of Robotics,PWT 10.01 and WIOD 2016 databases to match data for 60 economies from 1994 to 2019 and for 14 manufacturing subsectors for 41 economies from 2000 to 2014,this paper explores the impact and mechanism of robot application on TFP and productivity divergence from theoretical and empirical levels.The theoretical model shows that robot applications have a positive impact on productivity,and machine substitution is an important channel for improving TFP.The empirical analysis finds that robot applications can increase the productivity of all economies but exacerbate productivity divergence among economies.Mechanism analysis reveals that the industrial structure and robotic technology of high-productivity economies exhibit a higher degree of compatibility,the employment substitution effects formed are stronger,and thus robot applications have a greater impact on enhancing productivity in these economies.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the high level of robot applications in high-productivity economies exacerbates global productivity divergence.However,a few low-productivity economies with suitable industrial structures and favorable policy environments can partially narrow the productivity gap between them and high-productivity economies by increasing their robot applications. This paper has some policy suggestions.First,it should strengthen international cooperation with developed economies in intelligent technologies,thereby reducing the technological gap and promoting continued productivity growth in China.Second,it should introduce targeted policies to guide the rational application of intelligent technologies and balance productivity growth with employment stability to avoid triggering the risk of unemployment.Third,considering the impact of new technologies varies across industries,the Chinese government should actively adjust the domestic industrial structure to enhance the adaptability of industries to intelligent technologies such as robots and promote the collaborative development of domestic industrial upgrading and intelligent technology applications.关键词
机器人应用/全要素生产率/生产率分化/产业结构/就业替代效应Key words
robot application/total factor productivity/productivity divergence/industrial structure/employment substitution effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王永中,刘东升..机器人应用与全要素生产率[J].经济与管理研究,2025,46(2):3-23,21.基金项目
中国社会科学院研究所实验室综合资助项目"世界经济预测与政策模拟实验室"(2024SYZH003) （2024SYZH003）
