交通信息与安全2024，Vol.42Issue(6)：163-171,9.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2024.06.017
基于行程时间的公交运行可靠度评价及影响因素分析
Evaluation of Bus Operation Reliability and Analysis of Influencing Factors Based on Travel Time
摘要
Abstract
Bus operation is subject to various internal and external factors.To accurately evaluate bus operation reli-ability and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors.this study calculated the interval travel time based on bus arrival time data.It established a bus operation reliability evaluation method that can reflect the impact of unreason-able delays and the variability of interval travel time by calculating the dynamic threshold probability and coeffi-cient of variation and normalization processing.This method achieves horizontal and vertical comparison of bus op-eration reliability for different routes and different time periods,solving the problem that the bus operation reliabili-ty evaluation method based on schedule deviation is not applicable to high-frequency service bus routes.To address the limitations of existing research,which primarily focuses on single-factor considerations and qualitative analy-sis,eight influencing factors of bus operation reliability are constructed from perspectives such as station passenger flow,bus route and stop attributes,and road conditions.A Random Forest model is utilized to develop an impact model for bus operation reliability,and its accuracy is compared with that of support vector machine(SVM)and back propagation(BP)Neural Network model.This study used relative importance analysis with partial dependence plots to quantitatively identify key factors and reveal the impact mechanisms.The study uses multi-source bus data from 9 bus routes in Beijing from January 2019 for empirical analysis.The results show that the proposed evalua-tion method is effective in accurately identifying unreliable bus operations during morning and evening peak hours.The accuracy of the impact model constructed using random forest(RF)is the highest,with improvements of 20.38%and 49.88%compared to SVM and BP Neural Networks,respectively.Key factors influencing reliability in-clude bus stop spacing,bus section speed,and the proportion of dedicated bus lanes,with relative importance values of 26.9%,25.1%,and 24.1%,respectively.Additionally,the model reveals the nonlinear impact mechanisms of each factor and determines effective threshold intervals.When bus stop spacing is between 600 and 800 m,reliability im-proves by approximately 12.5%compared to 250 meters.Bus reliability is positively correlated with section speed,with a maximum improvement of around 7%.When the proportion of dedicated bus lanes exceeds 60%,reli-ability significantly improves,with an increase of about 6.5%when the proportion reaches 95%.Conversely,when the number of signalized intersections along a route increases from 1 to 3,reliability decreases by approximately 4%.To maintain stable reliability,no more than three bus routes should serve the same bus stop.关键词
公交运行可靠度/区间行程时间/随机森林模型/部分依赖图Key words
bus operation reliability/interval travel time/random forest model/partial dependence plot分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
翁剑成,赵世昌,林鹏飞,孔宁,钱慧敏..基于行程时间的公交运行可靠度评价及影响因素分析[J].交通信息与安全,2024,42(6):163-171,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52302381、52072011)、北京市教育委员会科学研究计划项目(KM202310005025)资助 （52302381、52072011）
