空间控制技术与应用2025，Vol.51Issue(1)：96-104,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1579.2025.01.010
基于自适应高斯混合模型的碰撞概率计算方法
Adaptive Gaussian Mixture Model Based Approach for Collision Probability Calculation
摘要
Abstract
In terms of collision probability calculation in space debris threat assessment,the traditional calculation methods are divided into whether to consider the uncertainty of spacecraft and space debris velocity,and the vari-ances of the initial status of two space objects considered in both cases are small.It will produce a large error in the case of large uncertainty of two space objects orbit determination.In order to calculate the collision probability accurately with the situation of nonlinear relative motion process of two space objects and large initial uncertainty,a collision probability calculation method based on adaptive Gaussian mixture model is proposed,which uses the adaptive Gaussian mixture model to approximate the uncertainty propagation process of spacecraft and space debris orbits,and calculates the collision probability according to the propagation results.The simulation results in the two-body environment show that the method achieves well calculation accuracy when the relative motion process is nonlinear,and the calculation accuracy is better than other collision probability calculation methods when the initial uncertainty of the object is large.关键词
空间碎片/误差传播/高斯混合模型/无迹变换/碰撞概率Key words
space debris/error propagation/Gaussian Mixture model/unscented transformation/collision proba-bility引用本文复制引用
周敬博,李克行..基于自适应高斯混合模型的碰撞概率计算方法[J].空间控制技术与应用,2025,51(1):96-104,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U21B6001) National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21B6001) （U21B6001）
