林业科学研究2025，Vol.38Issue(1)：169-180,12.DOI:10.12403/j.1001-1498.20240170
基于MaxEnt模型预测青杄和大果青杄潜在适生区
Predicting the Potential Habitat of Picea wilsonii and P.neoveitchii Based on the MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the relationship between potential habitat distribution of Picea wilsonii and P.neoveitchii across different periods and climate changes,providing a theoretical basis for biodiversity conservation and the promotion and application these species.[Method]Based on 130 current distribu-tion points for P.wilsonii and 15 for P.neoveitchii,along with 19 climatic variables,the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential habitat changes of these species during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM),the Mid-Holocene(MH),the current,and two future periods under high emission(RCP8.5)and low emis-sion(RCP2.6)scenarios.[Results]The MaxEnt model exhibited high accuracy in predicting the potential habitats of P.wilsonii and P.neoveitchii.Key climatic factors affecting the habitat distribution of P.wilsonii include isothermality,temperature seasonality,mean temperature of warmest quarter,and mean temperat-ure of coldest quarter.Mean diurnal range,temperature seasonality,and mean temperature of driest quarter were critical climatic factors influencing the habitat distribution of P.neoveitchii.The current poten-tial habitat area for P.wilsonii was approximately 103.11×104 km2,and for P.neoveitchii,it was about 17.25×104 km2.During the LGM and the MH periods,the total potential habitat area for P.wilsonii was 108.87%and 79.12%of the contemporary area,respectively.For P.neoveitchii,the potential habitat area was 161.59%and 98.94%of the current area,respectively.For P.wilsonii,the highly suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 7.62%,15.58%,50.71%,and 53.11%in the RCP2.6-2050s,RCP2.6-2070s,RCP8.5-2050s,and RCP8.5-2070s scenarios,respectively,compared to the present.For P.neoveitchii,the highly suitable habitat area is projected to decrease by 53.29%,51.06%,58.07%,and 83.44%,re-spectively,compared to the present.[Conclusion]Temperature has a more significant impact than precip-itation on the potential distribution areas of P.wilsonii and P.neoveitchii.From the LGM to the MH and the present,the total distribution areas of both species show a trend of initial decrease followed by expansion.Under future climate scenarios,the highly suitable habitat for P.wilsonii is expected to expand,while that for P.neoveitchii exhibits a trend of contraction.P.neoveitchii is more susceptible to climate change,espe-cially under the RCP8.5 scenario.关键词
潜在适生区/气候变化/最大熵模型/青杄/大果青杄Key words
potential habitat/climate change/MaxEnt model/P.wilsonii/P.neoveitchii分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘逸夫,王军辉,谭灿灿,袁艳超,郭宇峰,王志勇,贾子瑞..基于MaxEnt模型预测青杄和大果青杄潜在适生区[J].林业科学研究,2025,38(1):169-180,12.基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划"林木良种智能化高效繁育技术"项目子课题"云杉种子园早实稳产技术研究"(2023YFD2200605-02)国家级 （2023YFD2200605-02）
