南方电网技术2025，Vol.19Issue(1)：51-62,12.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2025.01.006
负荷水平约束条件下新能源出力场景生成新方法
A New Method for Generating New Energy Output Scenarios with Load Level Constraints
摘要
Abstract
Scenarios sequence generation is the basis of scenario analysis and optimization problem,and its accuracy directly affects the effectiveness of related analysis and optimization calculation.Based on this,a new method of generating new energy output scenarios with load level constraints based on artificial intelligence is proposed,significantly improving the accuracy of the generated scenarios and overcoming the difficulties without effective methods faced by the dispatch center.The process of the new method is as follows:firstly,the historical data expansion strategy based on Kalman gain information fusion technology is adopted,realizing the ef-fective data expansion of corresponding historical samples.Then,based on the self-organizing mapping network,the historical daily load curves are clustered to obtain multiple daily load type clusters,and each of the new energy output sequences on the same day as the daily load curves within each load cluster is corresponding classified into clusters,and the source load clusters with the specific load level constraint are achieved.Finally,a state transfer matrix based on Markov chain(MC)daily type transformation relationship is constructed,and then a sequence of daily types in the near future is generated by rolling sampling.And a generative adversarial network(GAN)already trained on each of source-load cluster data is applied to generate 96-point source-load scenarios sequences for the corresponding daily types.The numerical experiments verify the effectiveness and advancement of the proposed method.关键词
场景系列生成/人工智能/数据扩展/负荷水平约束/马尔科夫链/新能源Key words
scenarios sequences generation/artificial intelligence/data expansion/load level constraint/Markov chain/new energy分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
许琴,刘一鸣,陈志刚,庞学跃,盛奥,林济铿..负荷水平约束条件下新能源出力场景生成新方法[J].南方电网技术,2025,19(1):51-62,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177107) （51177107）
中国能源建设集团广东省电力设计研究院有限公司科技项目"新能源与负荷随机性特征及时间序列生成方法研究"(EV10271W).Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51177107) （EV10271W）
the Science and Technology Project of China Energy Engineering Group Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,"research on stochastic characteristics and time series generation method of new energy and load"(EV10271W). （EV10271W）
