四川环境2025，Vol.44Issue(1)：9-15,7.DOI:10.14034/j.cnki.schj.2025.01.002
利用逆温参数构建环境空气质量统计预报模型
Constructing Statistical Forecast Model for Ambient Air Quality by Using Temperature Inversion Parameter
摘要
Abstract
The temporal variation pattern of temperature inversion at low altitude in the downtown of Panzhihua is materially correlated with the changes in urban ambient air quality.In this paper,observations of temperature inversion and monitoring data of ambient air quality in Panzhihua was used,with the temperature inversion parameters and hourly concentration of ambient air pollutants at 20:00 of one day taken as independent variables,and the daily average concentration of ambient air pollutants on the next day taken as the dependent variable,to building an ambient air quality forecast model with the multiple regression method.The prediction results of ambient air quality from January to May 2024 showed that among six ambient air pollutants,CO had the highest standard mean error(NME)(24％)between predicted and measured values,and O3 had the lowest NME(9％).The minimum correlation coefficient R was 0.317 for SO2,0.686 for CO,and greater than 0.7 for other ambient air pollutants.The research results indicated that as the temperature inversion parameters more directly reflected the impact of temperature inversion phenomena on ambient air quality under specific regional terrain conditions,building an ambient air quality forecast model based on them can achieve better short-term forecast results and provide more accurate references for experts in numerical forecasting.关键词
逆温参数/环境空气质量/攀枝花市/统计预报Key words
Temperature inversion parameters/ambient air quality/Panzhihua/statistical forecast分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
季浩宇,唐毅,谢南,杨翠香,张云波,惠富斐,刘馨语..利用逆温参数构建环境空气质量统计预报模型[J].四川环境,2025,44(1):9-15,7.基金项目
攀枝花市指导性科技计划项目(2022ZD-S-10). （2022ZD-S-10）
